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.id insight Newsletter
November 2017 Edition

Population policy, please? 

The nature of Australian society and our place in the global economy suggests that we are destined to become a ‘big Australia’ – depending of course, on your definition of ‘big’.

Australia is currently at just over 24 million. A pragmatic forecast suggests that if we keep going the way we are, we will be 32 million by 2036. We are growing at a rate of almost 1.5% - which by OECD standards is rapid. By world standards though, 32 million is not that big for a nation.

Nevertheless, many Australians are experiencing rapid transformation in our cities, neighbourhoods and streets with house prices and transport congestion increasing. It is the rate of growth that gives us the feeling that there seems no end to change in sight. But no one is telling us why.

In 2009, when Kevin Rudd said he was for a big Australia he was pilloried for stating the obvious. Rudd was stating a fact not an opinion, he was actually saying he was for the status quo. Affected by Rudd’s experience Julia Gillard sheepishly stated that she was for a ‘sustainable’ Australia.

Before that, John Howard was more circumspect, giving us the impression that he was keeping a tight rein on migration while overseeing net gains in overseas migration of between 120,000 to 150,000. Perhaps for political expediency, he conflated protecting our borders with the anxiety that some in our communities feel about change, and the increasingly large numbers of migrants arriving from Asia.

Tony Abbott was our Trump/Brexit moment. It was a confusing period with no narrative to the future, but fear of change and evasion of a reasonable interpretation of facts. It was a (thankfully short) period of looking backwards and turning inward.

There is a strong relationship between what drives our population growth, where it is happening and our transforming economy. With our leaders unable to explain this in a clear narrative about the ‘what’ and ‘why’ of our future, no wonder we have an infrastructure deficit.

Author Ivan

Analysing Census data

The importance of geographic scale

 
geographic scale

 

More than a set of numbers and tables, Census data can tell us powerful stories about people and places to support informed decision-making.

Visualising information on a map can reveal geographic trends characterising a particular demographic. So why is geographic scale so important to demographic analysis?   

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Marriage equality vote

A demographic view of the same-sex marriage survey results

 
Marriage equality vote

 

61.6% of respondents recently voted yes in Australia's same-sex marriage survey, in support of changing the marriage law. 

If you are interested in seeing how Australia's electorates voted, you can explore the results spatially in .id's Australia profile to see the highest concentrations of yes votes across the country.

Read Georgia's blog for a demographic view of the results and to understand where correlations lie between age, education, religion, and the way people voted.

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2016 Census results

Crystal ball gazing: How did Glenn go?

 
crystal ball gazing

 

Census is an exciting time for everyone at .id.  Prior to the results being released, our Census expert Glenn Capuano made some predictions regarding what the data would reveal about Australia.

Now, following the second release of data from the ABS, we can see how close all Glenn's predictions came to the Census results.

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Product release

A new way to explore Census information

 
.id Placemaker

 

Following the release of Census data this year, we have been busy updating our tools and resources with the new information to help you access the latest insights about Australia's population.

We are excited to add a new tool to the kit that lets you navigate Census data spatially - from a big picture view, down to the detail of local areas.

A new version of .id Placemaker is now available to help you navigate the 2016 Census results. Placemaker uses web-based mapping to help you visualise patterns and trends that are often hidden in tables and spreadsheets.  

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Small Area Forecast information

How SAFi performed against State Government

 
.id SAFi population forecasts

 

Forecasting the future population is a highly complex undertaking that incorporates a large number of inputs, detailed underlying assumptions, sophisticated modelling, and a huge amount of knowledge and experience.

We often get asked about the accuracy of our Small Area Forecast information (SAFi) so, we summarise the performance of SAFi compared with the population projections produced by various state agencies.

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Inside .id

Marvellous Melbourne reborn: launch event

 

 

.id's team of population forecasters has recently finished updating our granular Small Area Forecast information (SAFi) for Victoria.

Victoria is in the midst of unprecedented population growth reminiscent of the period of the late 1880s when 'Marvellous Melbourne' first emerged.

As the team updated the forecast information, lots of interesting insights and trends were uncovered. We shared some of these stories at a  recent event held at .id to celebrate the launch of our new forecasts.

Thanks to all the people that attended, a great night was had by all. 

Being the curious cats we are, we have plenty more stories we are dying to share. Stay tuned for our upcoming releases about the patterns and trends we are seeing in Marvellous Melbourne and across Victoria.

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Final word

Rise of the YIMBY

 
YIMBYs

 

In a climate of angst about housing affordability and community objection to development, a new movement is emerging in support of higher-density living right in our own backyards!

Known as the YIMBY (Yes, In My Backyard), this grass-roots community movement is gaining momentum. Sounds radical. What's going on with that? 

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